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What Will Happen to That $30 Trillion in U.S. Home Equity? “It’s like someone turned off the faucet” You probably remember the last big housing bust which began more than 15 years ago. Elliott Wave International has observed that falling housing prices are generally preceded by a decline in home sales. The lag time may… Read more US Home Equity |
Climbing Oil Prices
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“Climbing Oil Prices Bearish for Stocks”? It’s a Myth! Oil and stocks sometimes trend together. Other times, they don’t. There’s a widespread belief that rising oil prices are bearish for the main stock indexes and falling oil prices are bullish for stocks. That belief is reflected in this Sept. 5 CNBC headline: Dow closes nearly… Read more Climbing Oil Prices |
Interest Rates
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Interest Rates: From 0% to Above 5% — to …? “The lines in the chart will turn up, and no policy will stop it” As you’re probably aware, many people who want to borrow to make a major purchase like a house or a car are bemoaning higher interest rates. It wasn’t so long ago… Read more Interest Rates |
Why Do Traders Lose Money?
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Why Do Traders Really Lose Money? Answer: It’s Not the Market’s Fault And 1 FREE course on how to help you stop self-sabotaging “good enough” trade plans I have always been a “who cares about the odds” kinda person. Meaning, if someone tells me the likelihood of succeeding at, say, learning to skateboard at 40,… Read more Why Do Traders Lose Money? |
Bold Call on Housing Prices
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Here’s a “Bold Call” on U.S. Housing Prices (Don’t Hang Your Hat on It) This does not look like a bottom in median existing home prices Back in October 2022, none other than Realtor.com asked the question: Is America in a housing bubble–and is it getting ready to burst? That was 10 months ago and… Read more Bold Call on Housing Prices |
Insiders Selling
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Pay Attention to This Group of Investors (They Know More) The stock market actions of corporate insiders is revealing It stands to reason that executives of a corporation know more about the goings-on of their business than outsiders. So, it’s wise to pay attention to their stock market actions regarding their own shares. Yes, the… Read more Insiders Selling |
Euro Stoxx 600 Following the Script
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Euro Stoxx 600: “Following the Script” “If the 2007 analogue holds, the current rally [will] persist …” On Oct. 24, 2022, Bloomberg said: Forget about a Santa rally to rescue European stocks from their doldrums, say strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Bank of America Corp. A week and a half later, our November… Read more Euro Stoxx 600 Following the Script |
German Economy is Broken
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How Germany’s Economy is Turning Ugly This economic gauge “dipped back below zero in less than a year” In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters): Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid In… Read more German Economy is Broken |
Tulip Mania Was Nothing
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Recently, Elliott Wave International’s president Robert Prechter gave a rare interview. He covered a lot of ground – from stocks and Bitcoin to the economy and gold. Our friends at Elliott Wave International are sharing Prechter’s interview with you free. Listen as Prechter explains why 2021’s extreme market sentiment made the Tulip Mania look like… Read more Tulip Mania Was Nothing |
Divergence in Stocks vs Junk Bonds
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Stocks and Junk Bonds: “This Divergence Appears Meaningful” “Everything was aligned until February 2” The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated. The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is… Read more Divergence in Stocks vs Junk Bonds |
Harbinger of the Bear Market
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Insights into This “Ultimate Harbinger” of the Bear Market Enthusiasm for U.S. IPOs seems to be dramatically decreasing Back in early 2021, many investors were chomping at the bits to invest in entities about which they knew next to nothing. These entities are known as Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), which may be described as… Read more Harbinger of the Bear Market |
Possible Replay of History
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Stocks: Possible Replay of an Ominous Price Pattern “I became panicky and covered at a considerable loss…” The reason price patterns tend to repeat in the stock market is that investor psychology never changes. The Elliott wave model directly reflects these largely predictable swings in investor psychology. That’s what the Elliott wave principle is all… Read more Possible Replay of History |
Sectors Leading Lower
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Will These 2 Sectors Lead the Stock Market Lower? This key sector continues to be “fragile” Although it doesn’t feel like it sometimes, the U.S. stock market has been in a downtrend since January 2022. The reason it doesn’t feel like it is because the S&P 500 has been in a narrow trading range between… Read more Sectors Leading Lower |
More Banks Could Fail
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More Banks Could Collapse — A Lot More This ETF “continues to make lower lows” It’s sobering to reflect on the fact that the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have all occurred in just the past few months. They are First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New… Read more More Banks Could Fail |
Insane Optimism in Stocks
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How “Insane Optimism” is at Work in the Stock Market “Stock investors are so bullish that they are…” Many technical indicators are highly useful, yet the price moves of the stock market really boil down to two things: optimism and pessimism. Major trend turns tend to occur when extremes are reached in either optimism or… Read more Insane Optimism in Stocks |
Next Shoe to Drop: Corporate Bonds
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Corporate Bonds: “The Next Shoe to Drop” “The neckline has been broken over the last few days” A “calamity” is likely ahead for corporate bonds, says our head of global research, Murray Gunn. Some of Murray’s analysis involves the head and shoulders, a classic technical chart pattern. In case you’re unfamiliar with it, here’s an… Read more Next Shoe to Drop: Corporate Bonds |
Credit Default Swaps Provide Warning
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Credit Suisse: How the Price of Credit-Default Swaps Provided a Warning “… exceeded every high-water mark … of the past 15 years” Credit-default swaps were invented in the mid-1990s but a lot of people did not become aware of them until around 2000, and that awareness increased dramatically during the 2008 financial crisis. As you… Read more Credit Default Swaps Provide Warning |
M2 Money Supply Deflates
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U.S. Money Supply Deflates 2% Annually (What That Means) The debt bomb implodes: Expect recession and deflation Many pundits have expressed worry about the ramifications of global debt — and rightly so. As the Wall Street Journal noted toward the end of 2022: The world has amassed $290 trillion of debt and it’s getting more… Read more M2 Money Supply Deflates |
Rise in Stock Market Volatility Ahead
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Explosive Rise in Stock Market Volatility! Why It May Be Ahead There are now S&P options that expire each day of the week. What that may mean. Here’s a Wall Street Journal headline from a couple of months ago that some people may have scanned without much contemplation (Jan. 11): VIX, Wall Street’s Fear Gauge,… Read more Rise in Stock Market Volatility Ahead |
Housing Market Top
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How This Pattern from the Prior Housing Bust is Repeating Here’s when homes will likely sell for once-in-a-lifetime bargains Just like the gold “in them thar hills” motivated people from all walks of life to become miners way back when, real estate booms have motivated people from far and wide to become agents. In both… Read more Housing Market Top |