Kondratieff Wave

January 27, 2022 Update M&As: Beware of This Major Sign of a Stock Market Top Here’s what often precedes “prolonged and devastating bear markets” Inside the three publications that comprise Elliott Wave International’s flagship Financial Forecast Service, Elliott Wave International recently documented the many expressions of “financial optimism.” Things like crypto mania. Or meme stocks.… Read more Record Optimism

“Wall Street never changes,” said Jesse Livermore, the legendary ‘boy plunger’ trader. “The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.” Livermore’s trading life started towards the end of the 1800s, just as Charles Dow was writing about the stock market in his Wall Street Journal. Dow’s… Read more The Peak in World Stocks

Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed for a “Bumpy Ride” On Friday, June 25, the Russell indexes underwent their annual rebalancing. In other words, stocks were moved from the Russell indexes like the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 based on their size. This event usually coincides with a big jump in trading volume… Read more Russell Index and the Meme Stocks

Bitcoin: “Crowded Trades” Can End Badly. Here’s How to Spot One. Cryptos can hugely reward, yet just as swiftly — punish. The phrase “bank run” tends to conjure up images of the 1930’s Great Depression. However, that phrase is now applicable to the 2021 world of cryptos. This is from a June 17 coindesk.com article:… Read more Crowded Crypto Trade Ending Badly

What Drives Gold Prices? (Don’t Say “the Fed!”) Excerpted from Elliott Wave International’s new FREE report ” Gold Investor’s Survival Guide: 5 Principles That Help You Stay Ahead of Price Turns.” There is a glaring hole in the popular understanding of what drives gold’s price. Mainstream finance believes the Federal Reserve’s monetary and interest rate… Read more Does Gold Go Up Due to Money Printing?

“Fastest Jump Since 2007”: How Leveraged Investors are Courting “Doom” “Our view is that the use of margin to buy stocks is far higher than the NYSE figures indicate” The stock market uptrend has extended for more than 11 years. Even so, instead of displaying caution, investors have been borrowing to buy stocks like there’s… Read more The Margin Doom

8 Indicators in 1: Here’s the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Mode. Prior model extremes occurred in March 2000 and October 2007. Elliott Wave International has been providing market analysis for more than four decades — which includes many bull/bear market cycles. That said, the public’s current market mindset — especially among inexperienced investors — is… Read more Panic and Euphoria

Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion Penny stocks are an investment vehicle that really has garnered the attention and speculation of investors in early 2021. They’re plunging headlong into off-exchange shares. I remember back when I started in the early 1980s at Merrill Lynch, there was a guy that walked in the office and he had… Read more Road to Riches via Penny Stocks?

U.S. Stocks: Here’s a Big Sign That “Sentiment Cannot Get Much More Extreme” The stock exposure of the most bearish active investment managers is revealing Relatively few investors want to bet against the stock market rally. As a Feb. 18 financial article says (CNBC): Short interest in the market has fallen to near-record lows. Indeed,… Read more Bullish Sentiment Extreme

Why Next Wave of Margin Calls Will Be FAR More “Disruptive” Than in 2000 or 2007 “Can investors afford to borrow anymore?” Financial history shows that every bear market has been followed by a bull market and vice versa. So, the current bull market will end sooner or later. The prior two bull market tops… Read more Margin Call Tsunami

Here’s Why Blind Contrarianism Failed in 2020. There is only one instance when the investing crowd is right. Yes, there are many times when the market’s Elliott wave structure suggests that an investor should take a position “against the crowd,” or put another way, be a contrarian. Prime examples are at market bottoms and tops.… Read more Contrarian Trade Failed in 2020

Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? When one of these groups acts, “the odds become high for a change of trend” It’s useful to know who is doing what in particular financial markets. You’ll find out why as we proceed, however, let’s first start off with some basic background… Read more Smart Money vs Dumb Money